Analysis of the price trend of steel market in the later period
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Update time : 2019-08-28 10:06:48
The national economy is expected to maintain a stable operation, and steel demand in the domestic market will remain stable. A new round of environmentally-friendly production is conducive to the stability of supply and demand in the later period, and steel prices will fluctuate slightly.
1. The national economy is expected to grow steadily, which is conducive to the steady demand for steel.
From the later situation, the external environment has become more severe and complex, and the domestic economy is also facing greater downward pressure. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report in July, predicting that the global economy will grow by 3.2% in 2019, with a growth rate of 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year. Judging from the operation situation of China in the first seven months, the effect of the “steady growth” policy measures introduced by the state in the early stage has gradually appeared. Although the indicators such as the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the growth rate of industrial added value have declined, the macro economy has remained stable. There is a steady state of operation. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 emphasized that the next stage will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, deepen supply-side structural reforms, and not use real estate as a means of stimulating the economy in the short term, expanding final demand and stabilizing. Investment in manufacturing has accelerated the implementation of short-board projects. It is expected that the national economy will maintain a stable and advancing trend in the later period, which is conducive to the steady growth of steel demand.
2. Environmental protection and production restriction measures are stricter, which is conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the steel market.
Judging from the recent situation, with the approaching of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Tangshan, Handan, Wu'an and other regions have successively introduced new measures to limit environmental protection. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline in the later period. At the same time, in order to control environmental pollution and promote the high-quality development of the steel industry, the Ministry of the Environment and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emissions in the Steel Industry", requiring that the ultra-low emission transformation of steel enterprises in key regions be achieved by the end of 2020. Significant progress, and this year is an important node to achieve ultra-low emissions, and environmental protection efforts will be further strengthened. The tightening of environmental protection and production restriction measures in the later period is conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the steel market.
3. Steel inventories continue to increase, and market pressures rise in the later period.
In July, steel social inventories continued to rise. At the end of July, it rose to 15.23 million tons, an increase of 122 tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.75%. Since August, steel inventories have continued to rise in the first two weeks and have declined slightly in the third week. As of August 16, the inventory was 15.69 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons from the end of July, an increase of 3.04%. From the specific varieties, the stocks of steel and wire in long products increased by 330,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively, hot rolled sheets and plate were increased by 60,000 tons, and cold rolled sheets were reduced by 20,000 tons. Long stocks increased significantly, and market pressures rose in the later period